The Nexus Between Armed Conflict and Food Insecurity

Abstract

Hunger and armed conflict are rising global issues that significantly hinder progress toward achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2: ending hunger, achieving food security, and promoting sustainable agriculture by 2030. The SDG 2022 progress report indicates that SDG 2 met only about 18% of its global target. This study examines the nexus between armed conflict and food security and agricultural production, using fixed-effect and system-GMM models applied to data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) covering 44 states and territories from 2000 to 2023. The findings reveal that armed conflict exacerbates food insecurity, undernourishment, and disrupts agricultural production. Specifically, a one-year conflict with average annual direct deaths of 3,000 increases the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity by 0.121% and undernourishment by 0.192%. Additionally, conflict reduces the livestock production index by 0.128%, crop production index by 0.160%, and food production index by 0.144%. This study underscores the negative impact of armed conflict on SDG 2 progress and highlights the need for targeted policy interventions in conflict-affected countries to address food insecurity, nutrition, and agricultural development.